“There will still be oil in the ground 10 years from now, and 50 years from now and 500 years from now.” – Mike Moffatt, Economics Expert

“According to calculations by Gilbert Masters, Stanford Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Emeritus, current oil supplies in all nations combined would last the world for only about 41 years.” – Michele Chandler, Stanford Business

So who’s correct?

No matter what the time constraints are on the world’s oil production, we do know that the consumption of fossil fuels has consistently outweighed the production. Because of this, economists, engineers, environmentalists, and prophets have predicted that peak oil is on its last legs – roughly for the past century.

Oil is and will likely always be in the ground. To this day, theories on exactly how quickly crude forms underground remain as such, and the estimates surrounding the world’s “oil supply”, are linked specifically to proven oil reserves.

For the uninitiated, proven oil reserves “are those reserves claimed to have a reasonable certainty (normally at least 90% confidence) of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions with existing technology [emphasis mine].”¹

Contrarily, unproven or probable/possible oil reserves are “based on geological and/or engineering data similar to that used in estimates of proven reserves, but technical, contractual, or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as proven.”¹

The estimates made in regards to dwindling crude production are based solely on proven reserves – negating any sudden changes in the way in which we extract this resource. This, of course, is in everyone’s best interest; after all, it is better to be safe than sorry – yet, the endless headlines and sensationalized news articles lamenting the end oil continue to shock readers every year (month, week, day?). If the politically-loaded and economically-targeted industry of petroleum production goes a few days without controversy, best believe you’ll come across another article predicting the bitter end of the world’s most precious resource.

Nevertheless, we’re still pumping oil from the ground at alarming rates (though, you shouldn’t be alarmed, necessarily). Moreover, technological advances in oil extraction have led to increased oil production over the past few years – and, as with most technology, research isn’t expected to slow down any time soon.

Mike Moffatt’s very economic view of the problem with petroleum explains that the world has nothing to worry about. In essence, he predicts that we will ultimately have a solution to dwindling oil supplies the world over before it ever becomes an issue. For example, Moffatt believes that the inevitable price increase of gasoline (while it becomes increasingly rare) will cause people to “naturally buy less of it”. He continues:

“This does not necessarily mean that people will drive less (though it is likely), it may mean that consumers trade in their SUVs for smaller cars, hybrid vehicles, or cars that run on alternative fuels.”

Furthermore, as technology surrounding alternative energies continues to improve, our reliance on petroleum will likely fall out of favor – more specifically, the sheer volume of oil the world consumes on a daily basis will drastically lower as alternative energies begin to take hold. Consider the recent achievements of countries such as Portugal or Costa Rica.

So, in sum, don’t fear the downfall of petroleum. If it does happen, it’s certainly a ways off – and we can hope that the many brilliant researchers and scientists the world over will be able to come up with the appropriate answers to our search for alternative energies.

But, for now – and for years to come – oil is still the top dog.